Steelers vs. Ravens prediction: Division rivals square off in do-or-die matchup for AFC North title

Let's preview the final game of the 2025 regular season

The final game of the 2025 regular season takes us to Pittsburgh for a doozy of a matchup between the Ravens and Steelers. For the winner, they'll be crowned AFC North champions and the No. 4 seed in the conference, while the loser will be ousted from the playoff conversation entirely. Are those high enough stakes for you? 

These two division rivals met less than a month ago at M&T Bank Stadium. Pittsburgh was able to walk away a winner in that Week 14 matchup thanks to a stellar showing from Aaron Rodgers and DK Metcalf. However, Metcalf will not be available to the Steelers in this one as the wideout is serving the final leg of his two-game suspension. Meanwhile, after missing last week's win over the Packers due to a back injury, Baltimore will get Lamar Jackson back into the lineup under center in what is essentially a playoff game. 

Before we dive further into this matchup, let's make sure you have all the information you need to check out this do-or-die showdown. 

Where to watch Steelers vs. Ravens live

• Date: Sunday, Jan. 4 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
• Location: Acrisure Stadium (Pittsburgh, PA)
• TV: NBC
• Odds: Ravens -3.5, O/U 40.5 (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)

Key questions

What version of Lamar Jackson are Ravens getting?

Since 2019, the Ravens are 6-12 without Lamar Jackson, so they'll certainly be happy to see their two-time NFL MVP back in the lineup on Sunday for such a massive game. That said, Jackson hasn't been the elite quarterback we've come to expect him to be for the bulk of this season. Baltimore is just 6-6 with Jackson as the starter this season, and the quarterback has eight passing touchdowns and five interceptions over his last eight games (51 passing touchdowns and five interceptions in previous 21 games). 

On top of Jackson simply not looking like himself this season, there's also the playoff struggles that loom over him, particularly as this is effectively a playoff game. He's just 3-5 in the playoffs with 13 total touchdowns and 11 turnovers in his career. Jackson is also 3-5 against the Steelers in is career (including playoffs) and has more turnovers 13) than total touchdowns (12). 

Stats	Lamar Jackson's career vs. Steelers (regular season + postseason)
W-L	3-5
Team PPG	22.4
Passing YPG	167.8
Totals TD/TO	12/13

Are those playoff struggles combined with his lackluster play this season going to rear their head on Sunday night? Or will he settle back into MVP form? The answer to that could very well tell the story of this game. 

Can Steelers generate a downfield passing attack?

As we noted, a key reason why Pittsburgh was able to pull off the Week 14 win was because of Rodgers and Metcalf gashing the Baltimore secondary on deep balls. Of Metcalf's seven receptions in the win, three of them went for 20-plus yards en route to a 148-yard day. Rodgers completed all four of his throws of 20-plus air yards, which is a stark contrast to his 24% completion rate (9 of 38) on such throws this season outside of that game. 

Steelers WRs this season	Metcalf	Rest of WRs
Receptions	59	64
Receiving yards	850	725
Receiving touchdowns	6	6

With Metcalf still serving his suspension, the Steelers could find it difficult to generate that same level of success on throws down the field. During Pittsburgh's Week 17 loss to Cleveland (the first game of Metcalf's suspension), Rodgers averaged just 4.3 yards per attempt.   

X factor

Derrick Henry is coming off a jaw-dropping performance against the Packers, rushing for 216 yards and four touchdowns in the win. This is the time of year when the veteran back starts to heat up as he comes into this game with the most rushing yards per game average (103.8) in December or later in NFL history (including playoffs). Henry has also enjoyed recent success against Pittsburgh, totaling 442 yards rushing in his past three games. That includes a 94-yard game back in Week 14. If Henry stays hot, it'll completely tip the scales in Baltimore's favor. 

Ravens vs. Steelers prediction, pick

The absence of DK Metcalf in this game and Pittsburgh's inability to produce through the air with any wide receiver other than Metcalf will be the biggest difference maker in this game. If Rodgers is averaging less than five yards per attempt, this offense will go nowhere fast. Pair that with the return of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry starting to heat up, this feels like a game where Baltimore's offense starts to roar while Pittsburgh's whimpers (Prediction: Ravens 24, Steelers 20 | Pick: Ravens -3.5).